The outlook for stock markets remains unclear. Alberto Matellán, Chief Economist at MAPFRE Inversión, believes that the declines currently being seen could even be said to be healthy. In an interview on Radio Intereconomía’s “A Media Sesión” program, he explained how factors that had provided a boost in recent weeks are losing traction, and, in his opinion, “once we come out of lockdown, it’s logical to think that the data will improve, but there’s a difficult part that we are yet to face — rebuilding.”
It’s no small matter that Credit Suisse has advised people to take their profits and pull out of the stock market in the face of possible turbulence over the summer or that, in the longer-term, Citi has predicted a stagnation of the stock markets in a year’s time. According to Matellán, all of these forecasts send out a common message, namely that “we may have gone too far.” That’s why he points to the tough rebuilding process that lies ahead.
This week, the European Commission further adjusted expectations of a drop in European GDP this year, by as much as 8.7 percent in 2020 before increasing 6.1 percent in 2021. Matellán believes that these figures, which are in line with those of other organizations, such as the IMF, “shows there is a long way to go.” However, he says that the latest forecasts are hardly any worse than they were a month ago, which is also a positive sign.
Indeed, according to Matellán, that persistent uncertainty will lead to the temptation of profit-taking this month. But the MAPFRE Inversión economist says, “if investors are sure about their portfolio and profile, they should go and enjoy their holidays and not be influenced by those messages.” “They shouldn’t change that portfolio over the summer,” he concludes.