Macroeconomic data continues to set market pace. This week, the ifo Business Climate Index in Germany was again better than expected, as was also the case for the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). But, as Alberto Matellán, Chief Economist at MAPFRE Inversión, explains in an interview for “A Media Sesión” on Radio Intereconomía, “we must consider the origin of the data, because, being from surveys, it is very contextual.” In his view, these indices cannot be directly translated onto key variables such as GDP or employment, so it is still too early to say that recovery is better than expected.
Investors are also worried about the possibility of further outbreaks. As Matellán explains, as of yet, “there have been no new lockdowns and the situation appears to be under control.” “In the weeks to come, this risk will have an even greater effect than economic data on stock market trends,” he adds. And next week, companies will begin to update their accounts, which will again reflect the damage caused by the complete economic shutdown. Matellán believes that, although we all know that the second quarter has been the hardest, there is some scope for nice surprises. Even so, he says that “we need to consider a longer-term outlook; this means looking at how these companies will recover in the next few years, which is where we see stock market investment.” “I believe these presentations are going to be important because, through them, companies offer ‘guidance’ for the future,” he insists.
In this context, Matellán recommends tailoring portfolios to investors’ profiles. “If I am a conservative investor, I know that, although any portfolio might suffer at times like these, it won’t impact me as much. Small investors have the advantage over institutional investors of already knowing their scenario.” And he concludes: “Good investment lets you sleep easy.”